Read More
Semiconductors, steam power, anesthesia, the printing press – these technologies were not just cool, they were transformative. It is almost impossible to think of our lives without them. So, what’s next?
The honest answer is: I haven’t a clue. By definition, disruptive innovations are unpredictable (or they wouldn’t be disruptive). If I had written this article in 1985, would I have seen the Internet coming in 1995? Nope. And even in well-established fields, big change can happen fast; a decade ago, almost no one in the oil-and-gas industry saw shale becoming as big a force in the US as it has. Finally, there are some things I would love to see that don’t seem at all likely. I yearn for the day when I can beam myself to different locations, the way Captain Kirk does in Star Trek.
Still, it’s worth considering how the world can change, both as a thought experiment and as a way to help set priorities. Here are a few things that I think have real potential to become very cool, very big--and pretty darn fast.
Electric-vehicle batteries: Electric cars have long been one of those technologies that are always oh, so close. Now, though, this just might finally be the case, as EV batteries get better and cheaper. In 2009, advanced batteries cost about $1,000 per kilowatt hour (kWh); by 2012, the price was half that. According to a McKinsey analysis that looked at the technology component by component, that could hit $160 by 2025. What does that mean? Well, assuming a gas price of $3.50/gallon, at $250/kWh, EVs become cost-competitive with conventional cars in the US. Because gas costs much more in most of Europe and Japan, the economic tipping point comes earlier in those important markets. That could translate into massive global sales, depending on how quickly a charging infrastructure develops; how willing consumers are to change; how governments act; and, crucially, how good the cars are. It is not impossible, says the International Energy Agency, that there could be 20 million EVs on the road by 2020. The effects could be enormous. EVs emit fewer greenhouse gases than conventional cars (even if the electricity comes from, say, coal-fired plants); and the geopolitics of oil would change markedly.
Next-generation genomics : A decade from now, will my annual checkup include shooting my genetic profile through a desktop gene-sequencing machine? I wouldn’t bet against it. Genomics—the study of genes, including the application of information technology to genetic mapping and DNA sequencing—has come a long way since the word was first coined in 1987. The pace of innovation is accelerating, while the costs of sequencing are declining. It took 13 years and $3 billion to sequence the first human genome in 2003; now we are on the cusp of a $1,000 machine that can do the same in a matter of hours.
In terms of human health, that could mean faster disease detection, more precise diagnoses, new drugs, and treatments tailored to the individual, including for cancer and diabetes. In agriculture, the use of genomics could help researchers to create new seeds that are not only more productive, but more drought- and pest-resistant, and that can address specific health concerns. In energy, it may be possible to transform bacteria into efficient biofuels, such as this charming image of a metabolically engineered bacteria.
Grid-scale storage: The wind doesn’t always blow and yes, night does follow day, so the sun does not always shine. This intermittency means that neither wind nor solar energy can be relied on for 24/7 power; they need backup. Today, pumped hydro serves that purpose, but it is expensive and only works in certain geographies. But what if, say, solar power generated during the day could be stored and used later? That fundamentally changes the dynamics of energy market. Cheap, reliable storage could also lead to better peak-load management and lower capital costs. Utilities use only a small fraction of capacity (around 30 percent); they have to overbuild in order to keep the lights on when power demands peak (think of a hot summer’s day). Storage would mean they could use more of their capacity and thus not have to build as many new plants. In poorer countries, solar/storage could help to bring reliable power to the billion people who have never had it and whom a grid might never reach.
There is a ton of interesting work being done. Scientists are also experimenting with pumped heat,liquid-metal, flow batteries, molten salt, flywheels, nano-based ultra-capacitors, and CO methanation via hydrogen electrolysis. McKinsey estimates that as these improve (and other options emerge) storage costs could fall by 80% by 2020. The McKinsey Global Institute notes that battery storage has a ways to go to be competitive with other options, and suggests that “storage for grid applications could be limited by 2025.” In its own analysis, the World Economic Forum put it this way: “It is too early to pick a winner, but it appears that the pace of technological development in this field is moving more rapidly than ever, in our assessment, bringing a fundamental breakthrough more likely in the near term.” That sounds about right.
Put it all together, and I would not be at all surprised if in 20 years, I will be driving my EV to my genetic therapy appointment in an office lit and warmed by cheap, reliable solar power. For me, these changes would be nice. More important, though, is that these technologies are most promising and transformative to the global poor, extending opportunity and health in new ways.
Photos By:
Credit: Department of Energy, Office of Science
Photo credit for Chevy Volt: GM
Like Comment Share
